Text Box: BREAKING INTELLIGENCE: BAD Market Correlations,  Google's IPO, and the Republican National Convention 18-Aug-04: Free Trade [or the Market] is negatively correlated with Freedom, Good, Truth, Deceit, Capitalism, Money, Science, and Technology. MI2 Allows You to Detect, Track, Characterize, and Quantify Turbulence, Dissonance, and Consonance in Mindshare -- and Uncover the Meaning of Events. 13-Jul-04 - 4-Sep-04 GREEN=GOOD correlation RED=BAD correlation     Rectangular Callout: 29-Jul-04 Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data indicate that total adjusted gross income on tax returns, adjusted for population growth and inflation, fell 9.2%, from 2000 to 2002. The number of Americans who reported no income or losses in 2002 surged 48.5% to 1.7 million. [1] Rectangular Callout: 30-Jul-04 The Bush administration projects a record budget deficit of $445 billion (3.8% of GDP) for fiscal 2004 [1-2]. The surplus in fiscal 2000 was $236.9 billion [2]. Rectangular Callout: 28-Jul-04 Lundquist Consulting reports that U.S. Consumer bankruptcy filings for the first 6 months of 2004 fell 3% to 801,817, from 825,792 in 2003 [1]. However, total bankruptcy filings for the fiscal year ending 31-Mar-04 increased 2.7% to 1,654,847, from 1,611,268 in 2003 [2]. Rectangular Callout: 5-Aug-04 Oil prices surge to a record high of over $44 per barrel [1]. The surge is attributed to a lack of spare capacity, Yukos' legal problems in Russia, unrest in Venezuela, and terrorism [2]. The terrorism risk premium is estimated at $10 [1]. Rectangular Callout: 4-Aug-04 U.S. contractors, including Halliburton Co., are netting at least $1.9 billion in Iraqi funds; the contracts were awarded by the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). $1.66 billion in Iraqi funds were paid to Kellogg Brown & Root Inc., a subsidiary of Halliburton. The CPA controlled at least $45 billion. According to auditors, CPA accounting and controls were flawed. [1] Rectangular Callout: 3-Aug-04 President George W. Bush signs U.S.-Australia free trade agreement [1]. Two-way trade between the US and Australia is $28 billion [2]. The trade agreement has not passed the Australian Senate [2]. Rectangular Callout: 1-Aug-04 - 4-Aug-04 Pre-tax profit for the first half of 2004 at top banks in Britain is nearly $19.5 billion: Rectangular Callout: 8-Aug-04 Prime Minister John Howard's government is accused by 43 former senior public servants, diplomats and defense chiefs of misleading and deceiving the Australian people about the reasons for invading Iraq [1-2]. Rectangular Callout: 1-Aug-04 Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge issues a terror alert. Potential terrorist targets include financial institutions: the New York Stock Exchange and Citigroup in New York, the headquarters of Prudential Financial in Newark, and the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington. [1-5] Rectangular Callout: 31-Jul-04 The World Trade Organization agrees to cut "unfair" farm subsidies for rich nations. Annual subsidies to farmers in the world's richest countries amount to $300 billion. The subsidies make it almost impossible for farmers in poor countries to compete with subsidized farmers in rich countries. [1] Rectangular Callout: 10-Aug-04 The Federal Open Market Committee decides to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.5% [1]. Rectangular Callout: 13-Aug-04 Hurricane Charley causes "major devastations" in Florida [1]. At least 16 people are dead and thousands are homeless [6]. 2 million people lose power [1]. Insured losses are estimated at $10 billion [3]. Storm damage could exceed $20 billion [7]. Rectangular Callout: 5-Aug-04 - 6-Aug-04 Global Stock Prices Tumble [1-6]. Rectangular Callout: 18-Aug-04 Google's IPO: Google drops its original target range of $108 to $135 a share to an auction clearing price of $85 [1-2]. The bankers' fee is about $46.76 million, or 2.8% of the $1.67 billion raised in the auction. [1] 19-Aug-04 Google's first day closing price is up 18% to $100.335; Google's market valuation is more than $27 billion [1]. Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin each sold about $41 million of Google stock and are worth about $3.8 billion each [3]. Rounded Rectangular Callout: BAD correlation Rounded Rectangular Callout: BAD-BAD consonance Rectangular Callout: 22-Aug-04 Pope John Paul II warns against speedy progress in science and technology, including, in particular, progress in human cloning. The Pope cautions that advanced research has limits: it must not overlook moral values -- what is "technically possible" is not necessarily "ethically good." [1] Rectangular Callout: 19-Aug-04 Nortel Networks Corp. to cut its workforce by about 10%, or 3,500 [1-3]. Nortel has fired 10 executives over accounting irregularities [2,3], which are being investigated by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police [2,4]. Rectangular Callout: 19-Aug-04 Amazon.com Inc. to acquire China's Joyo.com Ltd. for $75 million [1]. Rectangular Callout: 26-Aug-04 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan: "we owe it to our retirees to promise only the benefits that can be delivered. If we have promised more than our economy has the ability to deliver to retirees without unduly diminishing real income gains of workers . . . we must recalibrate our public programs . . . If we delay, the adjustments could be abrupt and painful" [1]. Possible solutions include: trimming Social Security and Medicare benefits; and raising the retirement age to receive Social Security benefits from 65 to 67 [2]. 77 million baby boomers will start retiring soon [2]. Rectangular Callout: 26-Aug-04 European Commission decides to open an in-depth investigation into whether ContentGuard Inc.'s digital rights management (DRM) software will give Microsoft Corp. and Time Warner Inc., which plan to acquire ContentGuard, a monopoly in copyright protection [1-5]. Rectangular Callout: 25-Aug-04 Shell Petroleum Development Corp (SPDC) is reportedly expected to pay $1.5 billion to compensate the Ijaws Aborigines in Nigeria for environmental damage [1-3]. SPDC contested the claims. [1] Rectangular Callout: 2-Sep-04 President George W. Bush accepts his nomination for President of the U.S. at the Republican National Convention 2004 [1]. Global Stock Prices Rise [2-7]. Rectangular Callout: 31-Aug-04 The World Trade Organization (WTO) rules on the U.S. Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act of 2000 (CDSOA) in favor of the European Union (EU), Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, India, Japan, and South Korea. [1] Rectangular Callout: 30-Aug-04 A report by the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of Hollinger International Inc. alleges "Corporate Kleptocracy": "Hollinger was victimized by its controlling shareholders as they transferred to themselves and their affiliates more than $400 million in the last seven years. The aggregate cash taken by Hollinger’s former CEO Conrad M. Black and its former COO F. David Radler and their associates represented 95.2% of Hollinger’s entire adjusted net income during 1997-2003" [1]. Ravelston Corp., Lord Black's holding company, and a spokesman for David Radler dispute the charges [2,3]. Rectangular Callout: 30-Aug-04 - 2-Sep-04 2004 Republican National Convention [1-3]. Rectangular Callout: 29-Aug-04 Hundreds of thousands of Americans protest in Manhattan against the Bush administration and the war in Iraq [1-3]. Rectangular Callout: 1-Sep-04 Armed men and women seize a school in Beslan; the gang is demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops from Chechnya [1]. 8 people are dead [4]. There are about 80,000 Russian troops in Chechnya [1]. 2-Sep-04 Russian forces storm the school in Beslan where militants held as many as 1,200 people hostage [1-2]. The death toll could exceed 150 [2]; 20 hostage-takers are dead [1-2].About 520 hostages, including at least 218 children, are injured [2]. Rectangular Callout: 24-Aug-04 US and UK regulators confirm a $150 million settlement with Royal Dutch/Shell Group [1-5]. SEC alleged Shell overstated proved reserves by 4.47 billion barrels [3]. Shell settled without admitting or denying the allegations [1-2]. Rectangular Callout: 25-Aug-04 U.S. Census Bureau: the number of Americans living in poverty increased by 1.3 million to 35.9 million in 2003; the official U.S. poverty rate in 2003 was 12.5%; the number of children under 18 years old living in poverty increased to 12.9 million (17.6%) in 2003, up from 12.1 million (16.7%) in 2002. [1] Rectangular Callout: 23-Aug-04 New U.S. Labor Department regulations governing overtime eligibility for white-collar workers under the Fair Labor Standards Act take effect [1-2]. Employees have sued employers, such as Starbucks, Wal-Mart and Taco Bell, for allegedly taking advantage of rules to deny them overtime pay [4]. Rectangular Callout: 24-Aug-04 Two Russian planes crash near simultaneously killing 89 people [1-2]. Terrorisn is suspected. Rectangular Callout: 18-Aug-04 Growth of offshore outsourcing by financial institutions remains unaffected by criticism [1]. Celent Communications estimates that 2.3 million jobs in the banking and securities industries could be at risk [2]. Rectangular Callout: 13-Aug-04 President George W. Bush pushes the "ownership society in America" theme [1]: "I understand if you own something, you have a vital stake in the future of America" (17-Jun-04) [2]. Some are skeptical. For example, Paul Krugman, in an Op-Ed piece in The New York Times: "Call me naïve, but I thought all Americans have a vital stake in the nation's future, regardless of how much property they own. (Should we go back to the days when states, arguing that only men of sufficient substance could be trusted, imposed property qualifications for voting?)" [3]. Rounded Rectangular Callout: Republican National Convention