WAR   

PROBABILITY DENSITY    

CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY    

2001/2002
Global Topics

Economic Vulnerability/
Terrorism Alert Indices

Granularity: Daily
Rolling Windows: 30-Day/60-Day
Threat Levels: 5
Codes: Green Blue Yellow Orange Red

Terrorism Alert Indices 
Probability Density 
Cumulative Probability 

The Macroknow Economic Vulnerability/ Terrorism Alert Indices anticipated  11-Sep-01, Israel's incursions, Bali, Moscow, and the onset of the war on Iraq.
For empirical evidence supporting 5 Threat Levels (Green, Blue, Yellow, Orange, and Red, click here).
 
GLOBAL SECURITY ALERT 2004
  • Security Alert
  • Likelihood of Terrorism
  • Indicators
  • Charts
  • Indices
  • Correlation Patterns
     
UNCERTAINTY INDICES, MONTHLY 2001/2 Global% Moral% Economic% 2003 Global% Moral% Economic% 
UNCERTAINTY INDICES, DAILY 2001/2 Global% Moral% Economic% 2003 Global% Moral% Economic% 
WAR
ALERT INDEX, MONTHLY 2001/2 Terrorism 2003 Terrorism 
WAR
ALERT INDEX, DAILY 2001/2 Terrorism 2003 Terrorism 
WORLD EVENTS 2001 2002 2003
The above histogram provides powerful empirical evidence supporting 5 Threat Levels: Green, Blue, Yellow, Orange, and Red.
       
 

 

     
   
   

 


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DISCLAIMER

The Macroknow Indexes (Indexes), including the Global Uncertainty Indices and the Macroknow Terrorism Alert Indexes, are the products of ongoing Macroknow Exploratory and Experimental Research. The Indexes and the associated Threat Level Codes (Codes) are provided for information purposes only. The Indexes and the Codes provide warnings of potential threats; they do not provide specific information about:

  • The threats' causes, potential gravity, and potential consequences;
  • The threats' purpose, potential targets, geographical location, and timing;
  • The security procedures, the protective measures, and the responses the threats call for; and 
  • How to manage the threats.

THE INDEXES AND THE CODES, BEING EXPERIMENTAL OR EXPLORATORY, MUST BE INTERPRETED AND USED WITH EXTREME CAUTION. YOU (AND NOT MACROKNOW) ASSUME TOTAL RESPONSIBILITY AND RISK FOR YOUR USE OF THE MACROKNOW SITE.

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