PRODUCT FEATURES

Macroknow Intellectual Intelligence
PREMIUM
Edition 2004
Web based
Experimental and exploratory research
Databases updated 225 times per year
Databases and Tools
  1. Global Indices
  2. Global Events
  3. Global Intellectual Matrix
  4. Global Uncertainties & Terrorism
Publications
  1. Global Intellectual Intelligence
  2. Global Security Alert
GLOBAL INDICES
Worksheet Contents Features
dx2 Database Provides the most valuable compilation of global state-of-mind indices, pre and post 9/11. Over 17,000 data points from 21-Feb-01 onward. Religion series starts 8-Aug-01.

Component indices are organized by category and group.

 

dp2 Database Provides the most valuable compilation of global state-of-mind percent indices, pre and post 9/11. Over 17,000 data points from 21-Feb-01 onward. Religion series starts 8-Aug-01.
Tool Tabulates and graphs the percent distribution of the latest recorded composite index.
rx2 Database Provides the rolling 7-day cumulative state-of-mind indices.
rp2 Database Provides the rolling 7-day cumulative state-of-mind percent indices.
Tool Tabulates and graphs the percent distribution of the latest recorded 7-day cumulative composite index.
mx2 Database Provides the rolling 30-day cumulative state-of-mind indices.
mp2 Database Provides the rolling 30-day cumulative state-of-mind percent indices.
Tool Tabulates and graphs the percent distribution of the latest recorded 30-day cumulative composite index.
mox2 Database Provides the monthly state-of-mind indices.
mop2 Database Provides the monthly state-of-mind percent indices.
Tool Tabulates and graphs the percent distribution of the latest recorded month-to-date cumulative composite index.
indices Tool Retrieves and displays the composite index and its components, for any type of index you select, and for any date you specify. The tool also displays percent indices, day-on-day index changes, and index ranks.
  • There are 3 types of indices: daily, rolling 7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative. A combo box allows you to quickly select the type of the index.
  • Topics are organized by category and group and are color coded for quick identification.
  • Top ranked indices are highlighted.
     
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Tool Dendrogram displays the structural hierarchy of the composite index in terms of its constituents: category indices, group indices, and component indices. The dendrogram also displays percent indices, day-on-day index changes, and index ranks.
xa Tool Provides information about the global 7-day cumulative indices:
  • The composite index and its 17 component indices for the last 7 days.
  • Advances and declines, including day-on-day changes, day-on-day percent changes, and ranks, for the last recorded component indices.
  • Statistics for component indices, including highs, lows, averages, and standard deviations, for 4 time horizons -- latest 7, 30, 90, and 365 days.
     
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pa Tool Provides information about the global 7-day cumulative percent indices:
  • The 17 component percent indices for the last 7 days.
  • Advances and declines, including day-on-day changes, day-on-day percent changes, and ranks, for the last recorded percent indices.
  • Statistics for component percent indices, including highs, lows, averages, and standard deviations, for 4 time horizons -- latest 7, 30, 90, and 365 days.
     
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xb Tool Provides multiperiod statistics for the global 7-day cumulative composite index and its 17 components.
  • 3 time horizons are used: latest 7 and 30 days, and year-to-date.
  • Statistics include: open, close, high, low, median, average, and standard deviation, for each time horizon.
  • day-on-day change, day-on-day percent change, and rank, at close.
     
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pb Tool Provides multiperiod statistics for the 17 global 7-day cumulative component percent indices.
  • 3 time horizons are used: latest 7 and 30 days, and year-to-date.
  • Statistics include: open, close, high, low, median, average, and standard deviation, for each time horizon.
  • day-on-day change, day-on-day percent change, and rank, at close.
     
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GLOBAL EVENTS
Worksheet Contents Features
ut Database Provides the most valuable compilation of global uncertainty and terrorism alert indices and codes, pre and post 9/11. Over 7,000 data points from 21-May onward.
  • 3 uncertainty indices: moral, economic, and global.
  • 5 destructive potential codes are associated with the economic uncertainty index: X-extreme, V-very high, H-high, S-significant, and U-unclassified.
  • 4 terrorism alert indices (leading indicators): 10-day, 30-day, 60-day, and extreme.
  • 3 threat level codes are associated with terrorism alert indices: green-low, blue-moderate, yellow-high, orange-very high, and red-extreme.

ute Database Provides the global uncertainty and terrorism alert indices and codes, pre and post 9/11, together with up to 3 top world events per day. (For world event counts, see we1-we4.)
NEWS Tool Extracts the top news and the associated extreme terrorism alert code for each of the last 365 days. Each record includes: date, extreme threat level code, venue, and event.
N30 Tool Extracts the top news and the associated extreme terrorism alert code for each of the last 30 days. Each record includes: date, extreme threat level code, venue, and event.
TN Tool Provides a 20-day rolling window of the top news. You select the time period using a vertical scroll bar.
we1-we4 Databases Provides valuable chronological compilations of top world events for each year since 2001.
  • Starting with 2002, each news record includes: date, venue, event, sources and references, and education/research links.
  • Categories of events include: politics, economics, finance, legislation, justice, health, religion, science and technology, war, rebellion, terrorism, protest, acts of God. Events are color coded.
  • Sources of, and links to, web-based information include: governments, NATO, the United Nations, central banks, defense organizations, courts, churches, research organizations, corporations, banks, stock markets, and newspapers.

Year

Number of World Events

World Events per day
2001 19 (from 1-Mar-01) 0.05
2002 165 0.45
2003 664 1.82
2004 693 (as at 1-Sep-04) 2.83
GLOBAL INTELLECTUAL MATRIX
Worksheet Contents Features
dx Database Provides a compilation of the global state-of-mind indices -- the composite index, the group indices, and the component indices, pre and post 9/11. Over 17,000 data points from 21-Feb-01 onward. Religion series starts 8-Aug-01.
dp Database Provides a compilation of the global state-of-mind group and component percent indices, pre and post 9/11.
rx Database Provides the rolling 7-day cumulative state-of-mind indices.
rp Database Provides the rolling 7-day cumulative state-of-mind percent indices.
mx Database Provides the rolling 30-day cumulative state-of-mind indices.
mp Database Provides the rolling 30-day cumulative state-of-mind percent indices.
cp Tool Calculates, in one full sweep, all the cross-correlation time series for any type of index, and for any state-of-mind component index that are specified in chartC2.
chartXP Tool Provides automatically synchronized charts that let you visualize the evolution of the global composite state-of-mind index, or any of its components, for any time period you specify.
  • Statistical data are automatically calculated and displayed: open, close, high, low, minimum, maximum, median, average, standard deviation, and correlation.
  • 2 frequency charts are also automatically displayed. These allow you to quickly compare the frequency distributions of the selected index over 2 time periods: the time period you select, and the time period for the full time series (all available data).

The tool is easy to use:

  • Combo boxes allow you to quickly select both the index and its type. There are 3 types of indices: daily, rolling 7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
  • Scroll bars allow you to specify the time horizon (end point and window) for the charts.
  • A spinner allows you to select the kind of synchronized frequency chart you wish to display: histogram, probability density, or cumulative probability.
     
  • Sample - wide screen
chartX2 Tool Provides automatically synchronized charts that let you visually analyze and compare the evolution of any 2 global state-of-mind indices, for any time period you specify.
  • Statistical data are automatically calculated and displayed: open, close, high, low, minimum, maximum, median, average, standard deviation, and correlation.
  • A regression analysis for the 2 selected indices is performed automatically. The calculated R2 is displayed. The empirical data and the regression line are graphed.
  • The correlations between the first selected index, and each of the global state-of-mind component indices, are calculated, displayed, and charted. The minimum and maximum correlations are automatically highlighted. Color coding is used for quick identification of index components.

The tool is easy to use:

  • Combo boxes allow you to quickly select the 2 indices you wish to compare, and their type. There are 3 types of indices daily, rolling 7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
  • Scroll bars allow you to specify the time horizon (end point and window) for the charts.
chartP2 Tool Provides automatically synchronized charts that let you visually analyze and compare the evolution of any 2 global state-of-mind percent indices, for any time period you specify.
  • Statistical data are automatically calculated and displayed: open, close, high, low, minimum, maximum, median, average, standard deviation, and correlation.
  • A regression analysis for the 2 selected percent indices is performed automatically. The calculated R2 is displayed. The empirical data and the regression line are automatically graphed.
  • The correlations between the first selected percent index, and each of the global state-of-mind percent indices, are calculated, displayed, and charted. The minimum and maximum correlations are automatically highlighted. Color coding is used for quick identification of index components.
  • 4 frequency charts are also automatically displayed. These allow you to quickly compare the frequency distributions of the 2 selected indices over 2 time periods: the time period you select, and the time period for the full time series (all available data).

The tool is easy to use:

  • Combo boxes allow you to quickly select the 2 percent indices you wish to compare, and their type. There are 3 types of indices: daily, rolling 7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
  • Scroll bars allow you to specify the time horizon (end point and window) for the charts.
  • A spinner allows you to select the kind of synchronized frequency charts you wish to display: histogram, probability density, or cumulative probability.
chartSOW Tool Provides automatically synchronized charts that let you visually analyze the dynamic distribution and structure of the global state-of-mind composite index, for any time period you specify.
  • 4 surface charts let you visualize the distributions of the composite index and the composite percent index, by group and by component (topic).
  • 21 surface charts let you visualize the distributions of the group indices and the group percent indices, by component (topic).
  • Statistical data are automatically calculated and displayed for both group indices and component indices: open, close, minimum, maximum, median, average, standard deviation, change, and percent change.

The tool is easy to use:

  • Combo boxes allow you to quickly select the type of the index. There are 3 types of indices: daily, rolling 7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
  • Scroll bars allow you to specify the time horizon (end point and window) for the charts.
  • Charts are automatically synchronized by default.
chartC2 Tool Provides automatically synchronized charts that let you visualize, analyze, and compare the time evolution of any 2 state-of-mind correlations. The charts provide deep and valuable insight into the structure and the dynamics of the state of mind index. Most important, they help you make sense of world events -- political, economic, commercial, and social. By understanding how people's state of mind affects and is affected by world events, in objective, quantitative terms, you are in a better position to assess the opportunities and threats your organization confronts.
  • The correlation charts show you how any component percent index (the primary index) is correlated with any two other component percent indices (the related indices), and how these correlations vary with time.
  • Correlations data are automatically calculated and displayed: open, close, minimum, maximum, median, average, and standard deviation.
  • The correlations between the first selected percent index, and each of the global state-of-mind percent indices, are calculated, displayed, and charted. The minimum and maximum correlations are automatically highlighted. Color coding is used for quick identification of index components.
  • 4 frequency charts are also automatically displayed. These allow you to quickly compare the frequency distributions of the 2 correlations over 2 time periods: the time period you select, and the time period for the full time series (all available data).

The tool is easy to use:

  • Combo boxes allow you to quickly select the percent indices and their type. There are 3 types of indices: daily, rolling 7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
  • Another combo box allows you to select the rolling correlation window: rolling 7-day, rolling 30-day, rolling 90-day, rolling 120-day, or rolling 365-day..
  • Scroll bars allow you to specify the time horizon (end point and window) for the charts.
  • A spinner allows you to select the kind of synchronized frequency charts you wish to display: histogram, probability density, or cumulative probability.
PN Tool Calculates and displays the global state of mind correlation matrix, for any time period you specify. The matrix provides you with valuable information about the intensity and valence of the "cause-effect" relationships between the components of the state of mind index.
  • The 289 (17x17) correlations are arrayed by category and group. You can see at a glance how moral components correlate with economic components, and with other moral components. In particular, you can see the relationships between bankers, technology, justice, law, and religion; and between these and the moral components -- autonomy (freedom and slavery), ethics (good and evil), and logic (truth and deceit).
  • Color coding allows you to quickly identify which state-of-mind component pairs are strongly positively correlated, which are strongly negatively correlated, and which are weakly correlated.
  • The distribution of the correlations is calculated and displayed automatically. You can quickly see how many correlations are positive, how many are negative, and how many are weak.

The tool is easy to use:

  • Combo boxes allow you to quickly select the kind and type of index you want to analyze. The 2 kinds are: index and percent index. The 3 types are: daily, rolling 7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
  • You can specify any time horizon (end point and window).
  • You can specify or change the strong and weak correlation levels.
GB Tool This tool works in tandem with CD. It calculates and displays the global state of mind correlation matrix, for any time period you specify. The matrix provides you with the deepest insight into the state of mind of people around the world, and into the political, economic, and moral structure of world events -- what is the state of the world and why it is as it is. This most valuable intelligence information allows you to understand and assess your own organization's economic and commercial performance. It provides the essential structural clues regarding the opportunities and the threats that underlie the current environment and your current situation. The action readiness of your organization to grasp opportunities and to avert, mitigate, or militate risks, depends on your ability to identify the constructive and destructive factors that directly affect your organization's performance, even though these are often concealed.

The tool is equipped with an embedded Worldview that allows you to interpret the meaning and structure of current and past world events, to make sense of the people's state of mind and its dynamics, and to identify the "constructive" and "destructive" factors that underlie the current environment.

  • You can quickly change the embedded Worldview to suit your understanding and interpretation. You can specify whether a correlation between 2 indices is GOOD, BAD, or NOT RELEVANT. For example, you can choose to associate the meaning GOOD with a strong positive correlation between Money and Freedom, and the meaning BAD with a strong negative correlation between Debt and Freedom.
  • The "constructive" and "destructive" factors that the indices imply for any time period you specify, using your Worldview, are produces automatically in CD. The factors are derived from the works of the top philosophers.

You have access to the 289 (17x17) cross-correlations for the 17 components of the composite state of mind index, for any time period.

  • The correlations are arrayed by category and group. You can see at a glance how economic components, for example, correlate with other economic components, and with moral components. In particular, you can see the relationships between bankers, technology, and justice; and between these and the moral components -- freedom and slavery, good and evil, and truth and deceit.
  • Color coding allows you to quickly identify which state-of-mind component pairs are GOOD, and which are BAD.
  • The Good Consonant/Bad Consonant/Good-Bad Dissonant Correlations Matrix allows you to quickly identify GOOD-GOOD consonant index component pairs, BAD-BAD consonant index component pairs, and GOOD-BAD dissonant index component pairs. GOOD-GOOD consonant pairs are opportunities that can be exploited for profit. Persistent BAD-BAD consonant pairs must be avoided, mitigated, or even militated, before they can harm irreversibly your operation. GOOD-BAD dissonant pairs provide evidence of disorder, confusion, perplexity, frustration, or anxiety.
  • The distribution of the correlations is calculated and displayed automatically. You can quickly see how many correlations are GOOD, how many are BAD, and how many are weak -- actually and ideally.

The tool is easy to use:

  • Combo boxes allow you to quickly select the kind and type of index you want to analyze. The 2 kinds are: index and percent index. The 3 types are: daily, rolling 7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
  • You can specify any time horizon (end point and window).
  • You can specify or change the strong and weak correlation levels.
CD Tool Working in tandem with GB, this tool provides you with the deepest insight into why-people-are-thinking-what-they-are-thinking, in terms of "constructive" and "destructive" factors. This most valuable intelligence information allows you to understand and evaluate your organization's economic and commercial performance in context. It provides the essential structural clues regarding the opportunities and the threats that underlie the economic and social environment for any time period you specify. The "readiness" of your organization to seize opportunities and to block, mitigate, or militate threats, depends on your ability to identify the current hidden "constructive" and "destructive" factors that affect your organization's security and performance. The factors are derived from the works of the top philosophers.
  • You can see at a glance the 17 cross-correlations, for any of the 17 components of the composite state of mind index, and for any time period you specify. For example, you can see how the selected state of mind component correlates with economic components and with moral components. Specifically, you can see how bankers, technology, or justice correlate with the moral components -- freedom and slavery, good and evil, and truth and deceit --, with the money components -- bankers, capitalism, debt, free trade, and money --, and with the science and technology components.
  • The correlations are arrayed by category and group, and are color coded to highlight their valence (positive or negative).
  • The correlations are also automatically classified and color coded as GOOD, BAD, or WEAK.
  • Important consonances and dissonances are highlighted: GOOD-GOOD consonant index component pairs, BAD-BAD consonant index component pairs, and GOOD-BAD dissonant index component pairs. GOOD-GOOD consonant pairs are potential opportunities for gain or profit. Persistent BAD-BAD consonant pairs must be avoided, blocked, mitigated, or even militated, before they can harm irreversibly your operation. GOOD-BAD dissonant pairs provide evidence of disorder, confusion, perplexity, frustration, or anxiety.
  • The distribution of the correlations is calculated and displayed automatically. You can quickly see how many correlations are GOOD, how many are BAD, and how many are WEAK -- actually and ideally.
  • You can quickly change the embedded Worldview, which is stored in GB, to suit your understanding and interpretation of the state of the world. (See the GB entry above.)

The tool is easy to use.

  • A combo box allows you to quickly select the state-of-mind component index you want to analyze.

All other input is automatically fetched from GB:

  • Combo boxes allow you to quickly select the kind and type of index you want to analyze. The 2 kinds are: index and percent index. The 3 types are: daily, rolling 7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
  • You can specify any time horizon (end point and window).
  • You can specify or change the threshold levels for strong and weak correlations.
BI Database Archives breaking intelligence starting 1-Jan-04.
  • Intelligence records include 10 items: WHEN (from/to dates and duration in days), WHO, WHAT (opportunity or threat), WHERE, WHY (out-of-whack correlations), CONCLUSION (action readiness), and applicable REFERENCES, and LINKS.
     
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GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY & TERRORISM
Worksheet Contents Features
ut Database Provides the most valuable compilation of global uncertainty and terrorism alert indices and codes, pre and post 9/11. Over 7,000 data points from 21-May-01 onward.
  • 3 uncertainty indices: moral, economic, and global.
  • 5 destructive potential codes are associated with the economic uncertainty index: X-extreme, V-very high, H-high, S-significant, and U-unclassified.
  • 4 terrorism alert indices (leading indicators): 10-day, 30-day, 60-day, and extreme.
  • 5 threat level codes are associated with terrorism alert indices: green-low, blue-moderate, yellow-high, orange-very high, and red-extreme.

ute Database Provides the global uncertainty and terrorism alert indices and codes, pre and post 9/11, together with up to 3 top world events per day. (For world event counts, see we1-we4.)
NEWS Tool Extracts the top news and the associated extreme terrorism alert code for each of the last 365 days. Each record includes: date, extreme threat level code, venue, and event.
N30 Tool Extracts the top news and the associated extreme terrorism alert code for each of the last 30 days. Each record includes: date, extreme threat level code, venue, and event.
pt Tool This tool works in tandem with ChartTU. It provides the frequency distribution for the likelihood of terrorism, by terrorism alert code, for each day since 19-Jun-01 (when a 30-day rolling window is used).
  • 5 terrorism alert codes are used: RED, ORANGE, YELLOW, BLUE, and GREEN.
  • The threat levels for the 5 terrorism alert codes are determined empirically. The calibration is based on the probability density for the 30-day terrorism alert index for the time period starting 1-Apr-01.
  • The MI2 30-day terrorism alert codes corroborate the 5 threat level codes of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Advisory System; but are otherwise unrelated to that system.

All pt input is automatically fetched from ChartTU:

  • Combo boxes allow you to quickly select the type of terrorism alert index you want to analyze. The 3 types are: 10-day, 30-day, and EXT (Extreme). The EXT terrorism alert index is the minimum of the 10-day, the 30-day, and the 60-day terrorism alert indices.
  • Another combo box allows you to select the rolling window to use for calculating the frequency distribution for the daily likelihood of terrorism, by terrorism alert code. There are 6 possible rolling windows: 7 days, 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, 120 days, and 365 days.
  • You can specify any time horizon (end point and window).
pu Tool This tool works in tandem with ChartTU. It provides the frequency distribution for the destructive potential entailed in economic uncertainty, by economic uncertainty code, for each day since 30-Apr-01 (when a 30-day rolling window is used).
  • 5 economic uncertainty codes are used: X-extreme, VH-very high, H-high, S-significant, and U-unclassified.
  • EXTREME means there is potential for 3,000 or more deaths per terrorism incident; SIGNIFICANT means there is potential for up to 50 deaths per incident.

All pu input is automatically fetched from ChartTU:

  • A combo box allows you to select the rolling window to use for calculating the frequency distribution for the daily destructive potential of terrorism, by destructive potential code. There are 6 possible rolling windows: 7 days, 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, 120 days, and 365 days.
  • You can specify any time horizon (end point and window).
ca Tool Search engine locates and ranks all terrorism or economic uncertainty patterns that are correlated with the terrorism or economic uncertainty pattern for any time period you specify. The results are displayed in cb.
  • The search engine locates the terrorism alert pattern (or the economic uncertainty pattern) that is "best" correlated with that for any time period you specify. For example, you can search for the terrorism alert pattern for the 30-, 60-, or 90-day period that resembles most the terrorism alert pattern for the 30-, 60-, or 90-day period ending 11-Sep-01. Or, you can search for the time period for which the terrorism alert pattern resembles most the pattern for the last 30, 60, or 90 days.
  • Statistical data are automatically calculated and displayed: the correlation coefficient, its standard error, the associated R2; and the confidence interval for the correlation coefficient for any confidence level you specify.

The tool is easy to use.

  • A combo box allows you to quickly select the kind of index you want to analyze: 10-day, 30-day, or EXT (Extreme) terrorism alert index; or ECON (economic uncertainty) index.
  • You can specify the maximum allowed overlap (0%-100%) between the pattern you specify and the "best" correlated pattern.
  • You can specify any time period (end point and window) for the search pattern.