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PRODUCT
FEATURES |
Macroknow
Intellectual
Intelligence
PREMIUM |
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Edition 2004 |
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Web based |
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Experimental and
exploratory research |
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Databases updated 225 times per
year |
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Databases and Tools |
- Global Indices
- Global Events
- Global Intellectual Matrix
- Global Uncertainties & Terrorism
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Publications |
- Global Intellectual Intelligence
- Global Security Alert
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GLOBAL
INDICES |
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Worksheet |
Contents |
Features |
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dx2 |
Database |
Provides the most valuable compilation of
global state-of-mind indices, pre and post 9/11. Over 17,000
data points from
21-Feb-01 onward. Religion series starts
8-Aug-01.
Component indices are organized by category and group.

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dp2 |
Database |
Provides the most valuable compilation of
global state-of-mind percent indices, pre and post
9/11.
Over 17,000 data points from
21-Feb-01 onward. Religion
series starts 8-Aug-01. |
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Tool |
Tabulates and graphs
the percent distribution of the latest recorded
composite index. |
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rx2 |
Database |
Provides the rolling 7-day
cumulative state-of-mind indices. |
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rp2 |
Database |
Provides the rolling 7-day cumulative
state-of-mind percent indices. |
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Tool |
Tabulates and graphs
the percent distribution of the latest recorded 7-day
cumulative composite index. |
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mx2 |
Database |
Provides the rolling 30-day
cumulative state-of-mind indices.
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mp2 |
Database |
Provides the rolling 30-day cumulative
state-of-mind percent indices.
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|
Tool |
Tabulates and graphs
the percent distribution of the latest recorded 30-day
cumulative composite index.
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mox2 |
Database |
Provides the monthly
state-of-mind indices. |
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mop2 |
Database |
Provides the monthly state-of-mind percent
indices. |
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Tool |
Tabulates and graphs
the percent distribution of the latest recorded month-to-date
cumulative composite index. |
|
indices |
Tool |
Retrieves and displays the
composite index and its components, for any type of index you
select, and for any date you specify. The tool also displays
percent indices, day-on-day
index changes, and index ranks.
- There are 3 types of indices: daily,
rolling 7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
A combo box allows you to
quickly select the type of the index.
- Topics are organized by
category and group and are color coded for quick
identification.
- Top ranked indices are
highlighted.
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Sample
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|
Tool |
Dendrogram displays the
structural hierarchy of the composite index in terms of its
constituents: category indices, group indices, and component
indices. The
dendrogram also displays percent indices,
day-on-day index changes, and index
ranks.
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xa |
Tool |
Provides information about
the global 7-day cumulative indices:
- The composite index
and its 17 component indices for the last 7 days.
- Advances and declines,
including day-on-day changes, day-on-day percent changes,
and ranks, for the last recorded component indices.
- Statistics for
component indices, including highs, lows, averages, and
standard deviations, for 4 time horizons -- latest 7, 30,
90, and 365 days.
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Sample
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wide screen
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pa |
Tool |
Provides information about
the global 7-day cumulative percent indices:
- The 17 component
percent indices for the last 7 days.
- Advances and declines,
including day-on-day changes, day-on-day percent changes,
and ranks, for the last recorded percent indices.
- Statistics for
component percent indices, including highs, lows, averages,
and standard deviations, for 4 time horizons -- latest 7,
30, 90, and 365 days.
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Sample
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wide screen
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xb |
Tool |
Provides multiperiod
statistics for the global 7-day cumulative composite index and
its 17 components.
- 3 time horizons are
used: latest 7 and 30 days, and year-to-date.
- Statistics include: open, close, high,
low, median, average,
and standard deviation,
for each time horizon.
- day-on-day change, day-on-day percent
change, and rank, at close.
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Sample
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wide screen
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pb |
Tool |
Provides multiperiod
statistics for the 17 global 7-day cumulative component
percent indices.
- 3 time horizons are
used: latest 7 and 30 days, and year-to-date.
- Statistics include: open, close, high,
low, median, average,
and standard deviation,
for each time horizon.
- day-on-day change, day-on-day percent
change, and rank, at close.
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Sample
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wide screen
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Top
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GLOBAL EVENTS |
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Worksheet |
Contents |
Features |
|
ut |
Database |
Provides the most valuable compilation of
global uncertainty and terrorism alert indices and codes, pre and post 9/11. Over 7,000
data points from 21-May onward.
- 3 uncertainty indices:
moral, economic, and global.
- 5 destructive
potential codes are associated with the economic uncertainty
index: X-extreme, V-very high, H-high, S-significant, and
U-unclassified.
- 4 terrorism alert
indices (leading indicators): 10-day, 30-day, 60-day, and
extreme.
- 3 threat level codes
are associated with terrorism alert indices: green-low,
blue-moderate, yellow-high, orange-very high, and
red-extreme.


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ute |
Database |
Provides the global
uncertainty and terrorism alert indices and codes, pre and post 9/11,
together with up to 3 top world events per day. (For world
event counts, see we1-we4.)
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NEWS |
Tool |
Extracts the top news and
the associated extreme terrorism alert code for each of the
last 365 days. Each record includes: date, extreme threat
level code, venue, and event.
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N30 |
Tool |
Extracts the top news and
the associated extreme terrorism alert code for each of the
last 30 days. Each record includes: date, extreme threat level
code, venue, and event. |
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TN |
Tool |
Provides a 20-day rolling
window of the top news. You select the time period using a
vertical scroll bar.
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we1-we4 |
Databases |
Provides valuable
chronological compilations of top world events for each year since 2001.
- Starting with 2002,
each news record includes: date, venue, event, sources and
references, and education/research links.
- Categories of events
include: politics, economics, finance, legislation, justice,
health, religion, science and technology, war, rebellion,
terrorism, protest, acts of God. Events are color coded.
- Sources of, and links
to, web-based information include: governments, NATO, the
United Nations, central banks, defense organizations,
courts, churches, research organizations, corporations,
banks, stock markets, and newspapers.
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Year |
Number of
World Events |
World Events per
day |
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2001 |
19 (from 1-Mar-01) |
0.05 |
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2002 |
165 |
0.45 |
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2003 |
664 |
1.82 |
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2004 |
693 (as at 1-Sep-04) |
2.83 |
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GLOBAL INTELLECTUAL MATRIX |
|
Worksheet |
Contents |
Features |
|
dx |
Database |
Provides a compilation of
the global state-of-mind indices -- the composite index, the
group indices, and the component indices, pre and post 9/11.
Over 17,000 data points from
21-Feb-01 onward. Religion series starts
8-Aug-01. |
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dp |
Database |
Provides a compilation of
the global state-of-mind group and component percent indices, pre and post 9/11. |
|
rx |
Database |
Provides the rolling 7-day
cumulative state-of-mind indices. |
|
rp |
Database |
Provides the rolling 7-day
cumulative state-of-mind percent indices. |
|
mx |
Database |
Provides the rolling 30-day
cumulative state-of-mind indices. |
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mp |
Database |
Provides the rolling 30-day
cumulative state-of-mind percent indices. |
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cp |
Tool |
Calculates, in one full
sweep, all the cross-correlation time series for any type of
index, and for any state-of-mind component index that are
specified in chartC2. |
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chartXP |
Tool |
Provides automatically synchronized charts
that let you visualize the evolution of the global composite
state-of-mind index, or any of its components, for any time
period you specify.
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Statistical data are
automatically calculated and displayed: open, close, high,
low, minimum, maximum, median, average, standard deviation,
and correlation.
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2 frequency charts are also
automatically displayed. These allow you to quickly compare
the frequency distributions of the selected index over 2
time periods: the time
period you select, and the time period for the full time series
(all available data).
The tool is easy to use:
- Combo boxes allow you to
quickly select both the index and its type. There are 3 types
of indices: daily, rolling
7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
- Scroll bars allow you
to specify the time horizon (end point and window) for the charts.
- A spinner allows you
to select the kind of synchronized frequency chart you wish to display:
histogram, probability density, or cumulative probability.
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Sample
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wide screen
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chartX2 |
Tool |
Provides automatically synchronized charts
that let you visually analyze and compare the evolution of any
2 global
state-of-mind indices, for any time
period you specify.
- Statistical data are
automatically calculated and displayed: open, close, high,
low, minimum, maximum, median, average, standard deviation,
and correlation.
- A regression analysis
for the 2 selected indices is performed automatically. The
calculated R2 is displayed. The empirical data
and the regression line are graphed.
- The correlations
between the first selected index, and each of the global
state-of-mind component indices, are calculated, displayed,
and charted. The minimum and maximum correlations are
automatically highlighted. Color coding is used for quick
identification of index components.
The tool is easy to use:
- Combo boxes allow you to
quickly select the 2 indices you wish to compare, and their
type. There are 3 types of indices daily,
rolling 7-day cumulative, and
rolling 30-day cumulative.
- Scroll bars allow you
to specify the time horizon (end point and window) for the charts.
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chartP2 |
Tool |
Provides automatically synchronized charts
that let you visually analyze and compare the evolution of any
2 global
state-of-mind percent indices, for any time
period you specify.
- Statistical data are
automatically calculated and displayed: open, close, high,
low, minimum, maximum, median, average, standard deviation,
and correlation.
- A regression analysis
for the 2 selected percent indices is performed
automatically. The calculated R2 is displayed.
The empirical data and the regression line are automatically
graphed.
- The correlations
between the first selected percent index, and each of the
global state-of-mind percent indices, are calculated,
displayed, and charted. The minimum and maximum correlations
are automatically highlighted. Color coding is used for
quick identification of index components.
- 4 frequency charts are
also automatically displayed. These allow you to quickly
compare the frequency distributions of the 2 selected
indices over 2 time periods: the time
period you select, and the time period for the full time series
(all available data).
The tool is easy to use:
- Combo boxes allow you to
quickly select the 2 percent indices you wish to compare, and
their type. There are 3 types
of indices: daily, rolling
7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
- Scroll bars allow you
to specify the time horizon (end point and window) for the charts.
- A spinner allows you
to select the kind of synchronized frequency charts you wish to display:
histogram, probability density, or cumulative probability.
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chartSOW |
Tool |
Provides automatically synchronized charts
that let you visually analyze the dynamic distribution and
structure of the global
state-of-mind composite index, for any time
period you specify.
- 4 surface charts let
you visualize the distributions of the composite index and
the composite percent index, by group and by component
(topic).
- 21 surface
charts let you visualize the
distributions of the group indices and the group percent
indices, by component (topic).
- Statistical data are
automatically calculated and displayed
for both group indices and component indices: open, close, minimum, maximum, median, average, standard deviation,
change, and percent change.
The tool is easy to use:
- Combo boxes allow you to
quickly select the type of the index. There are 3 types
of indices: daily, rolling
7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
- Scroll bars allow you
to specify the time horizon (end point and window) for the charts.
- Charts are
automatically synchronized by default.
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chartC2 |
Tool |
Provides automatically synchronized charts
that let you visualize, analyze, and compare the time evolution of any
2 state-of-mind correlations. The charts provide deep and
valuable insight into the structure and the dynamics of the
state of mind index. Most important, they help you make sense
of world events -- political, economic, commercial, and
social. By understanding how people's state of mind affects
and is affected by world events, in objective, quantitative
terms, you are in a better position to assess the
opportunities and threats your organization confronts.
-
The correlation charts show
you how any component percent index (the primary index) is
correlated with any two other component percent indices (the
related indices), and how these correlations vary with time.
- Correlations data are
automatically calculated and displayed: open, close, minimum, maximum, median, average,
and standard deviation.
- The correlations
between the first selected percent index, and each of the
global state-of-mind percent indices, are calculated,
displayed, and charted. The minimum and maximum correlations
are automatically highlighted. Color coding is used for
quick identification of index components.
- 4 frequency charts are
also automatically displayed. These allow you to quickly
compare the frequency distributions of the 2 correlations over 2 time periods: the time
period you select, and the time period for the full time series
(all available data).
The tool is easy to use:
- Combo boxes allow you to
quickly select the percent indices and their type. There are 3 types
of indices: daily, rolling
7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
- Another combo box
allows you to select the rolling correlation window: rolling
7-day, rolling 30-day, rolling 90-day, rolling 120-day, or
rolling 365-day..
- Scroll bars allow you
to specify the time horizon (end point and window) for the charts.
- A spinner allows you
to select the kind of synchronized frequency charts you wish to display:
histogram, probability density, or cumulative probability.
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PN |
Tool |
Calculates and displays the
global state of mind correlation matrix, for any time
period you specify. The matrix provides you with valuable
information about the intensity and valence of the
"cause-effect" relationships between the components of the
state of mind index.
- The 289 (17x17) correlations are
arrayed by category and group. You can see at a glance how
moral components correlate with economic
components, and with other moral components. In particular,
you can see the relationships between bankers, technology, justice,
law, and religion; and between these and the moral components --
autonomy (freedom and slavery), ethics (good and evil), and
logic (truth and deceit).
- Color coding allows
you to quickly identify which state-of-mind component pairs
are strongly positively correlated, which are strongly
negatively correlated, and which are weakly correlated.
- The distribution of
the correlations is calculated and displayed automatically.
You can quickly see how many correlations are positive, how
many are negative, and how many are weak.
The tool is easy to use:
- Combo boxes allow you to
quickly select the kind and type of index you want to analyze.
The 2 kinds are: index and percent index. The 3 types
are: daily, rolling
7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
- You can specify any
time horizon (end point and window).
- You can specify or
change the strong and weak correlation levels.
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GB |
Tool |
This tool works in tandem
with CD. It calculates and displays the
global state of mind correlation matrix, for any time
period you specify. The matrix provides you with the
deepest insight into the state of mind of people around the
world, and into the political, economic, and moral structure
of world events --
what is the state of the world and why it is as it is.
This most valuable intelligence information allows you to
understand and assess your own organization's economic and
commercial performance. It provides the essential structural
clues regarding the opportunities and the threats that
underlie the current environment and your current situation.
The action readiness of your organization to grasp
opportunities and to avert, mitigate, or militate risks,
depends on your ability to identify the constructive and
destructive factors that directly affect your organization's
performance, even though these are often concealed.
The tool is equipped with an
embedded Worldview that allows you to interpret the meaning
and structure of current and past world events, to make sense of the
people's state of mind and its dynamics, and to identify the
"constructive" and "destructive" factors that underlie the
current environment.
- You can quickly change
the embedded Worldview to suit your understanding and
interpretation. You can specify
whether a correlation between 2 indices is GOOD, BAD, or NOT
RELEVANT. For example, you can choose to associate the
meaning GOOD with a strong positive correlation between
Money and Freedom, and the meaning BAD with a strong
negative correlation between Debt and Freedom.
- The "constructive" and
"destructive" factors that the indices imply for any time
period you
specify, using your Worldview, are produces automatically in
CD. The factors are derived from the works of the top
philosophers.
You have access to the
289 (17x17) cross-correlations for the 17 components of the
composite state of mind index, for any time period.
- The correlations are
arrayed by category and group. You can see at a glance how
economic components, for example, correlate with other economic
components, and with moral components. In particular,
you can see the relationships between bankers, technology,
and justice; and between these and the moral components --
freedom and slavery, good and evil, and truth and deceit.
- Color coding allows
you to quickly identify which state-of-mind component pairs
are GOOD, and which are BAD.
- The Good Consonant/Bad
Consonant/Good-Bad Dissonant Correlations
Matrix allows you to quickly
identify GOOD-GOOD consonant index
component pairs, BAD-BAD consonant
index component pairs,
and GOOD-BAD dissonant index component
pairs. GOOD-GOOD
consonant pairs are opportunities that can be exploited for
profit. Persistent BAD-BAD consonant
pairs must be avoided, mitigated, or even militated,
before they can harm irreversibly your operation.
GOOD-BAD dissonant pairs provide evidence of disorder,
confusion, perplexity, frustration, or anxiety.
- The distribution of
the correlations is calculated and displayed automatically.
You can quickly see how many correlations are GOOD, how
many are BAD, and how many are weak -- actually and ideally.
The tool is easy to use:
- Combo boxes allow you to
quickly select the kind and type of index you want to analyze.
The 2 kinds are: index and percent index. The 3 types
are: daily, rolling
7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
- You can specify any
time horizon (end point and window).
- You can specify or
change the strong and weak correlation levels.
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CD |
Tool |
Working in tandem with
GB, this tool provides you with the deepest insight into
why-people-are-thinking-what-they-are-thinking, in terms of "constructive" and
"destructive" factors. This most valuable intelligence information
allows you to
understand and evaluate your organization's economic and
commercial performance in context. It provides the essential structural
clues regarding the opportunities and the
threats that
underlie the economic and social environment for any time
period you specify. The
"readiness" of your organization to seize
opportunities and to block, mitigate, or militate threats,
depends on your ability to identify the current hidden "constructive" and
"destructive" factors that affect your organization's security
and
performance. The factors are derived from the works of
the top philosophers.
- You can see at a
glance the
17 cross-correlations, for any of the 17 components of the
composite state of mind index, and for any time period you
specify. For example, you can see how the selected state of
mind component correlates with economic
components and with moral components. Specifically,
you can see how bankers, technology,
or justice correlate with the moral components --
freedom and slavery, good and evil, and truth and deceit --,
with the money components -- bankers, capitalism, debt, free
trade, and money --, and with the science and technology
components.
- The correlations are
arrayed by category and group, and are color coded to
highlight their valence (positive or negative).
- The correlations are
also automatically classified and color coded as GOOD, BAD,
or WEAK.
- Important consonances
and dissonances are highlighted:
GOOD-GOOD consonant index
component pairs, BAD-BAD consonant
index component pairs,
and GOOD-BAD dissonant index component
pairs. GOOD-GOOD
consonant pairs are potential opportunities for
gain or profit. Persistent BAD-BAD consonant
pairs must be avoided,
blocked, mitigated, or even militated,
before they can harm irreversibly your operation.
GOOD-BAD dissonant pairs provide evidence of disorder,
confusion, perplexity, frustration, or anxiety.
- The distribution of
the correlations is calculated and displayed automatically.
You can quickly see how many correlations are GOOD, how
many are BAD, and how many are WEAK -- actually and ideally.
- You can quickly change
the embedded Worldview, which is stored in GB,
to suit your understanding and interpretation of the state
of the world. (See the GB entry above.)
The tool is easy to use.
- A combo box allows you to quickly select
the state-of-mind component index you
want to analyze.
All other input is
automatically fetched from GB:
- Combo boxes allow you to
quickly select the kind and type of index you want to analyze.
The 2 kinds are: index and percent index. The 3 types
are:
daily, rolling
7-day cumulative, and rolling 30-day cumulative.
- You can specify any
time horizon (end point and window).
- You can specify or
change the threshold levels for strong and weak correlations.
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|
BI |
Database |
Archives
breaking
intelligence starting 1-Jan-04.
-
Intelligence records include 10 items: WHEN (from/to dates
and duration in days), WHO, WHAT (opportunity or threat),
WHERE, WHY (out-of-whack correlations), CONCLUSION (action
readiness), and applicable REFERENCES, and LINKS.
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Sample
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wide screen
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Top
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GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY &
TERRORISM |
|
Worksheet |
Contents |
Features |
|
ut |
Database |
Provides the most valuable compilation of
global uncertainty and terrorism alert indices and codes, pre and post 9/11. Over 7,000
data points from 21-May-01 onward.
- 3 uncertainty indices:
moral, economic, and global.
- 5 destructive
potential codes are associated with the economic uncertainty
index: X-extreme, V-very high, H-high, S-significant, and
U-unclassified.
- 4 terrorism alert
indices (leading indicators): 10-day, 30-day, 60-day, and
extreme.
- 5 threat level codes
are associated with terrorism alert indices: green-low,
blue-moderate, yellow-high, orange-very high, and
red-extreme.


|
|
ute |
Database |
Provides the global
uncertainty and terrorism alert indices and codes, pre and post 9/11,
together with up to 3 top world events per day. (For world
event counts, see we1-we4.)
|
|
NEWS |
Tool |
Extracts the top news and
the associated extreme terrorism alert code for each of the
last 365 days. Each record includes: date, extreme threat
level code, venue, and event.
|
|
N30 |
Tool |
Extracts the top news and
the associated extreme terrorism alert code for each of the
last 30 days. Each record includes: date, extreme threat level
code, venue, and event. |
|
pt |
Tool |
This tool works in tandem
with ChartTU. It provides
the frequency
distribution for the likelihood of terrorism, by terrorism
alert code, for each day since 19-Jun-01 (when a
30-day rolling window is used).
- 5 terrorism alert
codes are used: RED, ORANGE, YELLOW, BLUE, and GREEN.
- The threat levels for
the 5 terrorism alert codes are determined empirically. The
calibration is based on the probability density for the
30-day terrorism alert index for the time period starting
1-Apr-01.
- The MI2 30-day
terrorism alert codes corroborate the 5 threat level codes
of the
U.S. Department of Homeland Security Advisory System;
but are otherwise unrelated to that system.
All pt input is
automatically fetched from ChartTU:
- Combo boxes allow you to
quickly select the type of terrorism alert index you want to analyze.
The 3 types
are: 10-day, 30-day, and EXT (Extreme).
The EXT terrorism alert index is the minimum of the 10-day,
the 30-day, and the 60-day terrorism alert indices.
- Another combo box
allows you to select the rolling window to use for
calculating the frequency distribution for the daily
likelihood of terrorism, by terrorism alert code. There are
6 possible rolling windows: 7 days, 30 days, 60 days, 90
days, 120 days, and 365 days.
- You can specify any
time horizon (end point and window).
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|
pu |
Tool |
This tool works in tandem
with ChartTU. It provides
the frequency
distribution for the destructive potential entailed in
economic uncertainty, by economic uncertainty code,
for each day since 30-Apr-01 (when a 30-day rolling window is
used).
- 5 economic uncertainty
codes are used: X-extreme, VH-very high, H-high,
S-significant, and U-unclassified.
-
EXTREME means there
is potential for 3,000 or more deaths per terrorism
incident; SIGNIFICANT means there is potential for up to 50
deaths per incident.
All pu input is
automatically fetched from ChartTU:
- A combo box
allows you to select the rolling window to use for
calculating the frequency distribution for the daily
destructive potential of terrorism, by destructive potential
code. There are 6 possible rolling windows: 7 days, 30 days,
60 days, 90 days, 120 days, and 365 days.
- You can specify any
time horizon (end point and window).
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ca |
Tool |
Search engine locates and ranks all terrorism or economic
uncertainty patterns that are correlated with the terrorism or
economic uncertainty pattern for any time period you specify.
The results are displayed in
cb.
- The search engine locates the terrorism
alert pattern (or the economic
uncertainty pattern) that is "best" correlated with that for
any time period you specify. For example, you can search for
the terrorism alert pattern for the 30-, 60-, or 90-day
period that resembles most the terrorism alert pattern for
the 30-, 60-, or 90-day period ending 11-Sep-01. Or, you can
search for the time period for which the terrorism alert
pattern resembles most the pattern for the last 30, 60, or
90 days.
- Statistical data are
automatically calculated and displayed: the correlation
coefficient, its standard error, the associated R2;
and the confidence
interval for the correlation coefficient for any
confidence level you specify.
The tool is easy to use.
- A combo box allows you to
quickly select the kind of index you want to analyze: 10-day,
30-day, or EXT (Extreme) terrorism alert index; or ECON
(economic uncertainty) index.
- You can specify the
maximum allowed overlap (0%-100%) between the pattern you
specify and the "best" correlated pattern.
- You can specify any
time period (end point and window) for the search pattern.
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